Kuwait in numbers: oil output fell from 2.58 to 0.57 million barrels a day, and a KD 9.8bn deficit is budgeted
Editorial
Kuwait's crude output dropped by more than three-quarters at the low point of 2026. The budget still assumes oil at $57 a barrel and a deficit of KD 9.8 billion.
Source: Kuwait Times. A ceasefire in mid-June preceded the June recovery; renewed hostilities in mid-July were expected to weigh on output.
2.58mPre-war output, barrels a day (February)
0.57mApril to May average-78%
2.47mAverage output in 2025
1.84mForecast 2026 average
The FY2026/27 draft budget
KD 16.3bnRevenue ($53.1bn)-10.5%
KD 26.1bnExpenditure ($85bn)
KD 9.8bnDeficit ($31.9bn)+54.7%
$57Oil price assumed a barrel
$90.5Fiscal break-even oil price
KD 16.3bn
- Oil revenue: KD 12.8bn (78.5%)
- Non-oil revenue: KD 3.5bn (21.5%)
Source: Finance Minister Dr Yaqoub Al-Rifai via KUNA and Zawya. Shares are our calculation.
KD 26.1bn
- Salaries and subsidies: 76%
- Capital spending: 11.8%
- Other expenditure: 12.2%
Oil revenue is down 16.3% on the current budget; non-oil revenue is up 19.6%.
The buffers
| Measure | Figure | Source |
|---|---|---|
| Kuwait Investment Authority assets (unofficial) | About $846bn to $1.07 trillion | Zawya (Global SWF); Wikipedia, May 2026 |
| Government debt | 28.9% of GDP in 2025 (IMF); 17% (Kuwait Times forecast) | IMF; Kuwait Times |
| Non-oil PMI, May 2026 | 47.2 (April: 46.3); below 50 means contraction | Kuwait Times |
| Property sales, May 2026 | KD 229m, down 37.6% on a year ago | Kuwait Times |
| Credit growth, May 2026 | 6.7% on a year ago | Kuwait Times |
| Sovereign rating | Unchanged by S&P and Moody's; stable outlook | Kuwait Times |