Dubai’s economy in H1 2026: real GDP down 2.3%, finance up 8.8%, trade down 6%
Editorial
Dubai's real GDP fell 2.3% in the first half of 2026 to AED 473 billion. Finance and healthcare grew; trade and transport shrank.
AED 473bnReal GDP, H1 2026 (H1 2025: AED 484bn)-2.3%
AED 505bnGDP at current prices, H1 2026+0.2%
AED 232bnReal GDP, Q1 2026+2.4%
about AED 241bnImplied real GDP, Q2 2026 (our calculation)about -6%
AED 65.9bnFinance and insurance (14% of GDP)+8.8%
0.4%UAE economy growth, H1 2026
Source: Dubai Data and Statistics Establishment via The National and Gulf News.
AED 505bn
- Wholesale and retail trade: 20.5%
- Finance and insurance: 14.0%
- Real estate: 11.8%
- Transport and storage: 10.7%
- All other sectors (our calculation): 43.0%
Finance rose from a 12.5% share a year earlier.
| Sector | H1 2026 value | Change |
|---|---|---|
| Finance and insurance | AED 65.9bn (AED 60.6bn a year earlier) | +8.8% real |
| Real estate | AED 65.1bn at current prices | +5.4% current, -2.5% real |
| Construction | AED 33.2bn | +2.4% real |
| Information and communication | AED 24.7bn | +2.7% real |
| Healthcare and social work | AED 6.2bn (AED 5.4bn a year earlier) | +14.3% real |
| Wholesale and retail trade | 20.5% of GDP | -6.0% real, +2% current |
What the government and agencies cite
- The regional war that began on 28 February 2026 disrupted travel and trade and weighed on tourism and transport (The National).
- A AED 1.5 billion economic relief package was announced in May 2026.
- AED 2.1 trillion of projects in housing, aviation and transport, including the Al Maktoum International Airport expansion.
- Dubai's Diez free zones recorded AED 246 billion of trade, up 17%: imports AED 134.8bn (+14%), re-exports about AED 109bn (+22%).
- More than 10,000 companies operated in the DIFC in the half.
The 2025 baseline
| Period | GDP | Growth |
|---|---|---|
| January to September 2025 | AED 355 billion | +4.7% |
| Q3 2025 | AED 113.8 billion | +5.3% |
| Full-year 2025 (preliminary, current prices) | About AED 972 billion (AED 890bn in 2024) | About +9.2% nominal, our calculation |